Meta lost 20 million users last quarter — but sure, blame Iran and Russia

Meta just dropped its latest earnings report, and the headline number is not great: 20 million fewer people used Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, or Messenger on a daily basis last quarter compared to the three months before.

That’s a noticeable dip for a company that’s been riding high on user growth for years. The official term is “Family daily active people” — which is corporate speak for “we’re bundling all our apps together so the number looks bigger.”

Meta’s explanation? Internet disruptions in Iran and a restriction on WhatsApp access in Russia. That’s the official line, anyway.

Look, I’m not saying those aren’t real factors. Iran has had periodic internet blackouts, and Russia’s been tightening the screws on foreign platforms since the war in Ukraine started. But blaming two specific countries for a 20 million user drop feels like a convenient excuse.

Consider this: Meta has been pushing hard into AI — spending billions on data centers, GPUs, and research. Mark Zuckerberg has made it clear that AI is the future of the company. But if users are actually leaving the platforms, throwing more money at AI won’t fix the underlying problem.

What’s the underlying problem? I’d argue it’s a combination of things: Facebook’s core audience is aging out, Instagram’s algorithm has become increasingly frustrating for creators, and WhatsApp’s monetization efforts are still clunky. Plus, there’s the general fatigue with social media that’s been building for years.

Meta also reported that its average revenue per user actually increased slightly, which suggests the remaining users are more valuable — but that’s cold comfort if the total addressable audience is shrinking.

I’ve been watching Meta’s earnings calls for years, and there’s always a narrative. This quarter, the narrative is “AI is our salvation, and the user dip is an anomaly.” Maybe it is an anomaly. But if next quarter shows another decline, the excuses will wear thin.

For now, Meta is betting that AI-powered features — like smarter recommendations, automated ad targeting, and generative AI tools for creators — will bring users back or at least stop the bleeding. I’m not convinced. AI can improve the product, but it can’t fix a platform that people are leaving because they’re bored or annoyed.

I’d love to see Meta break down the user numbers by app instead of bundling them. Is the drop concentrated in Facebook? Instagram? WhatsApp? That would tell us a lot more about where the real problem lies. But Meta has been moving in the opposite direction — hiding granular data behind the “Family” metric for years.

Bottom line: 20 million users is a lot of people. Whether you believe Meta’s explanation depends on how much trust you have in a company that’s been caught misreporting metrics before. I’m skeptical, and I think investors should be too.